Climate change and the aging population could double the number of heat-related deaths in Amsterdam per year, Parool reports, based on a new study by the RIVM commissioned by the municipality. The RIVM expects an estimated 250 heat-related deaths in the city by 2050.

The RIVM mapped out how many Amsterdam residents died prematurely as a result of heat and cold between 2007 and 2019. Using anonymized data on daily mortality, the RIVM concluded that there were around 110 heat-related deaths per year.

The risk of dying on extremely hot days was higher than average among elderly people, in neighborhoods where many residents have a lower income or education level, and in neighborhoods with little public green space.

The researchers then used these mortality risks and future climate scenarios to estimate heat-related mortality in 2050. The RIVM expects a substantial increase in heat-related deaths in all climate scenarios, averaging at a rough doubling in the number of deaths.

If greenhouse gas emissions decline rapidly, as agreed in the Paris Climate Agreement, the RIVM expects 215 heat-related deaths per year by 2050. If the emissions decline is moderate, there will be approximately 250 such deaths per year.

Climate change is resulting in more, longer, and more intense heatwaves. And due to the aging population, more Amsterdam residents will be vulnerable to the heat by 2050. The number of people over the age of 75 is expected to nearly double by 2050.

According to the researchers, about a quarter of the increased heat-related mortality can be attributed to demographic changes, such as population growth and the aging population.

The RIVM did not investigate why heat-related mortality risks are higher in neighborhoods with a lower average income or education level. The researchers expect this is because residents have fewer opportunities to mitigate the impact of the heat. Residents of these neighborhoods also have poorer health, on average, and these neighborhoods are more paved, with less greenery.