None of the sugar-tax options, currently under review by the Cabinet, can deliver a reliable profit and are too complicated to enforce, while the health improvements are also unclear. This was found by a study, conducted by PwC and commissioned by the food industry association FNLI, which looked into whether a broad levy on sugar in the Netherlands would actually deliver results.

The Cabinet wants the tax to bring down sugar consumption and improve public health. Importantly, it also wants the measure to raise about 900 million euros a year from 2030 to help close a hole in the budget.

Research found that the two aims can pull in opposite directions. A tax that actually cuts the intake of sugary products would reportedly, in return, actually shrink the profits from the tax. This means that the 900 million euro a year goal can be easily undermined.

A Dutch tax would also widen the price gap with Belgium and Germany and could make cross-border shopping even more attractive. The Dutch are already actively going over the border to buy cheaper soft drinks and beers.

In the study, PwC examined several designs for a broad tax on foodstuffs and assessed them on feasibility, administrative burden, enforcement, and fraud risk. It came to a conclusion that none delivered the health goal, the revenue target, workable implementation, and legal robustness without major uncertainties or drawbacks.