Several years after the coronavirus pandemic, Dutch public health institute RIVM has not calculated how many deaths could have been prevented had the Netherlands entered into a lockdown earlier during the first wave of Covid-19 cases, NOS reports. This despite the fact that a motion was adopted by Parliament calling for such a study, and a pledge of support by then-Health Minister Ernst Kuipers.

The RIVM did estimate that intervening three days later would have resulted in more than double the number of deaths. However, the institute stated that reversing the calculations to see how many deaths could have been prevented is “too hypothetical.”

Hearings for the parliamentary inquiry into Covid-19 begin later this month. The United Kingdom has already completed two inquiries. One finding there was that 23,000 lives could have been saved if England had gone into lockdown one week earlier, which led to the large Dutch parliamentary majority in 2023 requesting that the Netherlands also do these calculations.

Then Health Minister Ernst Kuipers promised Parliament that the RIVM would do so. But according to the RIVM, it is difficult to estimate whether people would have complied with stricter measures a few days earlier, partly because there was “less sense of urgency.”

Kuipers himself, however, told NOS that making the calculation remains “as relevant as ever.” Two members of the advisory committee of the Dutch Safety Board (OVV) also say the RIVM should carry out the analysis.

On March 11, the WHO declared a pandemic. On March 12 and 13, Norway, Belgium, and France announced stricter measures. In the Netherlands, a stricter set of measures was introduced on March 15.

At the time, the PVV and FvD advocated a hard lockdown, but it did not happen; for example, shops remained open.

The response to the coronavirus was slow in many European countries, but there were also key differences. For example, on March 11, 2020, Denmark reported 10 coronavirus cases, while the RIVM recorded 121 that date, and 62 new positive tests a day earlier, as mortality rates climbed higher.

Denmark announced the closure of schools, cultural institutions, and bars on March 11, four days before the Netherlands. With exponentially growing viral infections, a few days can make a major difference, says Chantal Rovers, professor of infectious disease control.

When Ernst Kuipers, then chair of the National Acute Care Network, spoke to the press about the COVID crisis, he offered a rough estimate himself, NOS reported. He stated that the Netherlands could have saved approximately 4,000 lives if it had implemented stricter measures four days earlier and if citizens had complied. He bases this conclusion on a total of 6,000 COVID deaths in the first wave. That would have meant roughly 2,000 deaths, he argued.

Earlier intervention, according to Rovers, Kuipers, and epidemiologist Alma Tostmann, would have also led to a shorter lockdown. “If there is relatively little viral spread in a country, it takes less effort to bring it down again. Measures can then be scaled back more quickly.”